2008 BC and Vancouver Housing Outlook
From Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
VANCOUVER, November 2, 2007 — Demand for homeownership will keep housing starts and existing home sales at above-average levels in BC and Vancouver, and push new and existing home prices higher in 2008.
“Housing starts in BC will top 33,250 next year down slightly from this year’s level but still above average levels”, noted Carol Frketich, BC Regional Economist. Factors behind this demand include: unemployment near record lows, strong employment growth, rising wages, relatively low mortgage rates and growing migration. Recent financial market turmoil in the United States will keep interest rates relatively flat in Canada despite upward inflationary pressures.
“In Vancouver, housing demand will be supported through 2008 by ongoing job growth and a steady flow of people moving to the region” said Robyn Adamache, CMHC’s Vancouver Senior Market Analyst. Solid home price gains will continue to attract investors and live-in homeowners alike. These factors, combined with Vancouver’s growing international reputation as a clean, liveable city, will keep demand for new and resale housing robust. Both new home starts and existing home sales will stay near record highs, but edge down slightly in the year ahead. Look for new and resale home prices in Metro Vancouver communities to increase, but at a slower pace than in recent years.
| Housing Market Outlook | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Housing Starts | 2006 Actual | 2007 Forecast | 2008 Forecast |
| British Columbia | 36,443 | 36,200 | 33,250 |
| Abbotsford CMA1 | 1,207 | 1,150 | 1,200 |
| Kelowna CMA | 2,692 | 2,750 | 2,700 |
| Vancouver CMA | 18,705 | 19,000 | 18,500 |
| Victoria CMA | 2,739 | 2,445 | 2,275 |
| Total MLS® Sales2 | 2006 Actual | 2007 Forecast | 2008 Forecast |
| British Columbia | 96,671 | 100,500 | 93,750 |
| Abbotsford CMA | 3,853 | 3,700 | 3,650 |
| Kelowna CMA | 4,158 | 5,500 | 5,200 |
| Vancouver CMA | 36,479 | 38,300 | 37,200 |
| Victoria CMA | 7,500 | 8,300 | 7,600 |
| Average MLS® Price ($) | 2006 Actual | 2007 Forecast | 2008 Forecast |
| British Columbia | 390,963 | 438,200 | 464,500 |
| Abbotsford CMA | 303,959 | 361,700 | 398,000 |
| Kelowna CMA | 349,805 | 415,000 | 448,000 |
| Vancouver CMA | 509,876 | 571,000 | 623,000 |
| Victoria CMA | 427,154 | 465,000 | 485,000 |
SOURCE: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, British Columbia Region Highlights, Fourth Quarter 2007.